Before we get into anything, let me open by saying Happy New Year to each and all. I did indeed go out on New Year’s Eve, but it was actually a pretty normal night out with the boys, so I don’t have much to report on that. I will say, however, that it’s fun going out for major holidays and watching the length of girls’ dresses get shorter every calendar year. Here’s to more thigh in ’09!
Okay, I’m done being perverted. For now.
The real reason I’m here is to talk playoffs. The NFL playoffs start on Saturday, and I just don’t think it would be a football weekend if I didn’t chip in my two cents. We’ll start with Saturday’s games.
Atlanta (-2) over Arizona
Give me one good reason to take the Cardinals here. Go ahead, I’ll wait. They have played so poorly in the last six weeks, only winning twice (once against the lowly Rams and once against the equally lowly Seahawks). They can’t run the ball whatsoever, which means their entire offense is reliant on 37 year old Kurt Warner’s arm. Sure, he was probably the MVP of the first half of the season, but he hasn’t played very well in the past five or six weeks. Add that to the fact that he’s old and has been sacked 26 times this year, and I think that creates a recipe for the Falcons to go after him. I mean, if the Cardinals do win this game, it will be because Warner threw for 430 yards. Even though I think the Cards are bad, I think the Falcons are going to take this game more than they will have it given to them. They have a balanced attack with Michael Turner and Matt Ryan, and I think they will prove to be too much for Arizona to handle. My pick: Atlanta 24 – Arizona 20
Indianapolis (-1) over San Diego
You know, despite the differences in their records, three out of the six online sportsbooks I looked at are giving the line as a “pick em.” I dunno, maybe I don’t see what they see. I see an Indy team that has won nine in a row, playing against a San Diego team who did NOT play well outside their division and who basically backdoored their way into the playoffs due to a skewed system. (Note: You can make the case that they won their last four games to earn that playoff spot, but take a look at those four wins. They came against Oakland, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Denver. Not a solid team in there considering Tampa and Denver both took late-season shit slides. Meanwhile New England is sitting at 11-5 and will be watching the playoffs this season. Bogus.) I see a struggling LaDanian Tomlinson who has only rushed for 100 yards or more twice this season, (and they were for 106 and 105 yards respectively). If this line stays at Indy giving one point, this is a slam dunk of a bet in my opinion. My pick: Indianapolis 35 – San Diego 24
Onto Sunday’s games …
Baltimore (-3.5) over Miami
How good is Baltimore’s defense? Consider this: 40% of plays run against them this season have gone for zero or negative yards. When I heard that, I almost choked on my chicken pot pie. That is astounding. Despite that, this was a particularly tough game for me to make a call on. On the one hand, Baltimore beat the hell out of Miami 27-13 earlier this year. On the other hand, that was back in October, and Miami has most certainly gotten better since then. Miami’s offense gets my nod over Baltimore’s, but playoff football is all about playing good defense and limiting mistakes, so this game could go either way. If Joe Flacco comes out flat and the Ravens defense is on the field for an extended period of time in the first half, it could open the door for Miami. I don’t like Baltimore’s chances playing from behind, so if they don’t get on the board early it could spell trouble for them. In the end though, I have to go with my gut. My pick: Baltimore 19 – Miami 13
Philadelphia (-3) over Minnesota
I can’t bring myself to take them. I cannot take the Vikings here. It’s not even about my dislike for them, I can put that aside. I just don’t like this matchup for them for a few reasons. Brace yourself, this could take me a while to vent.
-First, they have the worst coach in the playoffs, and it’s not even close. I thought Andy Reid was a bad coach, but there is no mistake that Andy Reid can make that Brad Chidlress won’t make twice. I haven’t seen so much indecision in my entire life. Like last week, when they let 20 seconds run off the clock at the end of the game, then called a timeout with 9 seconds left, brought out the kicker, had the Giants call a timeout, came out and ran another play, and then kicked the field goal. What the hell is Brad Childress thinking? Either you want to run another play or you want to kick the ball. Either call a timeout right away, or run it down to three seconds. What could possibly be going through his mind? I imagine his thought process is similar to John Daly at a buffet when he’s only got room on his plate for one more dish. “Uhhh, meatloaf. No. Macaroni and cheese. No. Meatloaf. Mac and cheese. Meatloaf. Mac and cheese …. Ice cream?” No good can come from that.
-Second, their entire offense is way too one-sided. It revolves entirely around Adrian Peterson, who recently admitted to the media that he’s been playing hurt the last three weeks. Aside from the obvious that your only offensive weapon is not 100%, now the Eagles are going to be gunning for him, and you’re crazy if you think they won’t be. They are going to blitz like crazy on first and second down and he is going to get stuffed harder than Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball. That leaves third downs to Tavaris Jackson. Minnesota fans, I know T-Jack has been playing better lately, but he’s still Tavaris Jackson.
-Third, as I said before, playoff football is about defense and limiting mistakes. The Vikes have a fantastic defense, no denying that. But they make a lot of mistakes, also no denying that. Vikings quarterbacks have thrown 17 interceptions, and the offense as a whole has fumbled 18 times. That’s a tish more than one of each per game, which is not going to cut the mustard.
Look, I have a hard time giving the Vikes credit for almost any of their wins this season. They are a product of a horrible division and I’ll go so far as to say their only quality win was aginst Carolina in week three. Don’t even tell me last week’s win against New York was a quality win because half of the Giants starters were on the sidelines while the Vikings scored their last 10 points. I’ll tell you all like I told Jordan. The only shot the Vikes have to win this game is if Peterson gets a 60 yard touchdown run early and gets the Eagles on their heels. Then they might get a couple cheap turnovers and take a 17-0 lead while the Metrodome goes nuts. That is the only thing that’s got me even somewhat nervous about this game. I say I’m nervous because Jordan and I bet on this game. We bet on all kinds of stuff, and it’s usually for a beer and almost never for more than $10, but this time we stepped things up a notch. I told him that if the Vikings win a playoff game, I will kill myself. I also said this two weeks ago before I had any idea of who they would be playing, so I get extra credit for that. When I asked him what he was going to put up against my life, he replied, very casually, “A beer.” Worth it. My pick: Philadelphia 20 – Minnesota 17
Well, that will do it for this week’s games. I’ll see what I can do about making this a weekly ordeal all the way through the Super Bowl. Hang on, while I consult the board of directors.
Okay, I’m back. Thanks for sticking around. Well, I’ve convened with myself, and as it turns out, I really don’t have anything better to do, so I am going to green light this project.
Let me know what you think about these games and my picks. I’m fully expecting two ridiculous comments, one each from Jordan and B-Weezy, the resident Vikings fans. I’m ready to defend my predictions boys.
One love,
10
The Power of 10 