The Road to San Antonio Goes Through North Carolina

Well last night we got one good game, which is more than we can say for almost the entire third round. I got both of my picks right, which really isn’t much to brag about considering I picked the favorite in each game. Nevertheless, both games played out basically how I envisioned.

We’ll start with my team. To say I was nervous going into the game would be fairly accurate. Louisville has been playing really solid basketball lately; their closest game thus far in the tournament was an 18 point victory over Boise State in the first round. Added to the fact, Rick Pitino is nothing short of a genius, especially when it comes to tourney time. As I pointed out yesterday, I felt like UNC’s keys to winning were simple. They needed to make the easy shots and take care of the basketball. In their only two losses this season, I watched them turn the ball over way too much as well as struggle to make shots from inside 8 feet. Last night’s game was just what it needed to be for the Heels, as they came out strong in the first half and went into the locker room at halftime with a 12 point lead. They were controlling the tempo of the game and keeping it very fast-paced, just like they like it. They were getting rebounds and making their free throws and everything looked just gravy.

Then, the thing I said yesterday that I was afraid of happening began happening. Louisville came out in the second half and looked like almost a completely different team. I don’t know what Pitino said, but the Cards began making it rain out there. They were ripping down boards, applying airtight pressure on D, cashing shots from 20+ feet, and forcing turnovers. They worked their 12 point deficit down and before I could even blink, it was a tie game. I immediately went from being comfortable to being in the I-think-I-just-shit-my-pants mode where I sit on the edge of my seat with my body clenched up until something good happens. The teams battled back and forth for the better part of the second half, but Louisville struggled with their free throws and UNC began to inch away. Hansbrough was absolutely tough in the last few minutes and hit a few really big shots, a couple of them from just inside three point range. The most impressive part of the entire game to me was the Heels’ ability to close out their opponent and finish the game. They made their free throws and took good care of the ball down the stretch, which is where a lot of young teams seem to come up short.

All things considered, it was a well-played game for the Heels. They shot 53% from the field and 86% from the charity stripe, they outrebounded their opponent yet again, and they forced more turnovers than they gave up. When they play like that, they are tough to beat. Hansbrough finished with 28 points on 12-of-17 shooting and 13 boards, while four other Heels were in double figures. The only negative thing that sticks out to me was Wayne Ellington’s performance. He finished with 13 points, but it came on a not-so-stellar 5-of-14 shooting performance. He took a few questionable shots, and if they end up playing Kansas next week, he is going to have to make sure he is only taking premium shots because the Jayhawks will punish a team for those misses.

In the UCLA-Xavier game, I hinged the Bruins’ efforts for a victory on the performances of Kevin Love and Darren Collison, each of whom finished with 19 points as UCLA made a statistic out of yet another team. Now UCLA looks ahead to April 5th, when they will face the winner of tonight’s Memphis-Texas game. I’m not going to lie, I watched some of the game, but when the Bruins started running away with it, I ended up flipping around a little bit and followed that up by dozing off on the couch for a while.

Don’t hate, I was just sick of watching one lopsided game after another in this damn tournament. As good as the first two rounds were, I cannot believe how many blowouts and one-sided games we’ve endured since then. I’m not going to write the whole tournament off just yet though, because we’re halfway there to having a Final Four with all four one-seeds for the first time ever and THAT would be worth watching. With that said, let’s get into my picks for today’s games.

• (2) Texas over (1) Memphis. For the third game in a row I am picking against the Tigers, and for the third time in a row, I’m probably going to end up eating my words. It all depends on which Memphis team shows up. If the Memphis team that played Michigan State shows up, Texas is in trouble. If the Memphis team that played Mississippi State shows up, Texas is going to punish them. Both sets of guards are extremely athletic, but I would go so far as to say that Memphis has the edge in that department. Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose are both amazing, and usually carry most of the scoring load for the Tigers. However, this is not to take anything away from DJ Augustin or AJ Abrams. For Texas to win this game, they are going to have to keep their fouls to a minimum as they aren’t especially deep. Connor Atchley and Damion James both have their work cut out for them going up against the rotating threesome of Memphis big men in Robert Dozier, Joey Dorsey, and Shawn Taggart. Texas has to do everything they can to control the boards and get as many second chance points as they can. The Memphis big men usually don’t shoot the ball very much, and they are very often in foul trouble, so if that happens then Texas needs to take advantage and attack the basket. I’m sick of Memphis, I just don’t like them. I can’t even explain it, but they are just not enjoyable to watch in my opinion. Accompanied with that, I think my Tar Heels would have a better shot at beating Texas than they would at beating Memphis if Memphis brought their A-game. I gotta think about this kind of stuff.
• (1) Kansas over (10) Davidson. Okay, this has to be it. I’ve really enjoyed watching Stephen Curry and the boys make this run, but Kansas is just way too good. They are too deep – they have 4 players who average in double figures whereas Curry along with Jason Richards do the bulk of the scoring for the Wildcats. I know it’s easier said than done, but Kansas simply cannot allow Curry the space he’s been getting. He has a quick trigger and doesn’t need a whole lot of room to bury a shot, so keeping constant pressure on him is a must. Conversely, if Davidson is going to pull off this upset, I have some keys for them that will need to be followed. First and foremost, they have to challenge shots. As I said, Kansas is deep, and everyone on the floor can contribute, so Davidson needs to get hands in as many faces as they can. Also, they need to keep the Jayhawks away from the basket and force them to shoot jump shots. I’m not implying that Kansas can’t shoot the ball, they can light the place up, but they more often opt for a line to the basket and an easy two. I’m going to say this one more time: Davidson doesn’t seem to me like they have enough weapons to match up with Kansas. While Curry has proven himself to be nothing short of superhuman, I don’t know if he has the support in the frontcourt to keep this game close enough to where he can take over in the second half like he has done so three times so far. If Davidson gets behind early, look for them to start rushing and forcing shots. Along the lines of which team I would rather see UNC play, that has to be Davidson. I really have to imagine they would have an easier time focusing on locking down two people and letting Hansbrough go to work on whomever Davidson stacks up against him as opposed to dealing with Kansas’ deep bench and their extremely talented backcourt. As I’ve been saying all week, though, I just want to see a good game.

Well, the first game is about to get underway, so I better post and get my ass on the couch. Have a great Sunday, and I’m sure I’ll be back tomorrow to either gloat or eat my words.

One love,

10

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Tags: Davidson, Elite 8, Final Four, Kansas, March Madness, Memphis, NCAA, Texas, UNC

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